Professor Rex's 2021 Oscars Preview

Okay, I did it. For the first time in my life I watched every single Oscar-nominated movie, read all the nominated screenplays and listened to all the nominated songs multiple times. That's 56 total movies (although I admit I didn't watch all of the movie with accused sex abuser Shia LaBeouf, only saw about 30 minutes of that one), 10 screenplays and 5 songs.

Here is my take on what should win in each category and what I predict what will win. Keep in mind that "should" here is my personal preference, not necessarily a measure of quality and historic nature.

Here we go...

Best Picture: If you read my commentary on movies, you probably already know that I think "Judas and the Black Messiah" was the best movie of the year. Said that the day I watched it and it I still think so. The story is spectacularly told with some sublime acting. It's an important story with near-flawless execution. This should be required watching as part of American history curriculum. It probably won't win, though, for whatever reasons. The early buzz was around "Mank" and after that died down, it started to focus on "Nomadland" and that's where I think it'll end up. "The Father" or "Minari" could pull off an upset and I wouldn't rule out "The Trial of the Chicago 7." If "Judas" wasn't in the running, though, I'd likely go with "Promising Young Woman" or "Sound of Metal." Better movies and less frequently heard stories (along with "Minari"). I will note, though, that this is one of the best group of Best Picture nominees I've seen in a long time. All are worth watching.

Actor in a Leading Role: This is probably the biggest blowout of the night. And not because of the talent of the other performers. Any other year and I'd likely vote for Riz Ahmed, but Chadwick Boseman did one of the great movie characters in recent memory while covering up cancer that killed him. Awards are made for people like him in moments like this. He will always be alive because he left performances like this one, so filled with energy and confidence and vibrance, when his body was losing each of these things. I almost feel sorry for Steven Yeun. His leap from the beloved Glenn on "The Walking Dead" to his character in "Minari" is something that deserves recognition, just not in this particular moment.

Actress in a Leading Role: This might be the tightest race out of all of them. I didn't watch all of Vanessa Kirby's work because of the presence of LaBeouf, but what I did see was powerful stuff. She could definitely win. Carey Mulligan's acting in "Promising Young Woman" kinda hasn't ever left my mind since I saw it. The same could be said for Viola Davis and Andra Day. Personally, I lean towards Day. Like that was her first acting performance in a movie and she held her own with this list of amazing actresses. The award very likely could go to Frances McDormand, though, who is not only worthy, but she gets an advantage because the similarity of Davis and Day's roles. Both women did outstanding jobs, but the characters share a lot of territory, making it possible the vote for them could cancel each other out. If that happens and voters don't want to award McDormand again, Kirby or Mulligan could sneak in.

Actor in a Supporting Role: It's a little unfair to the other actors that Daniel Kaluuya is in this category. He's the lead in his movie and his work is just plain ground-breaking. Then again, if he were in the same category as Boseman, they both couldn't win, which would seem wrong. This isn't a fair fight and any of the other four could win if Kaluuya wasn't in the race, but he is and I can't see anyone else getting it.

Actress in a Supporting Role: At one point this was definitely thought to be Maria Bakalova's award without a doubt, but more recently Yuh-Jung Youn has been coming up a lot more. I think Youn is going to win and I think she was the best. The quality in this category is so high this year, though, that I wouldn't be surprised by anyone winning it except Glenn Close. Close's work was as good as always, but people really seemed to hate "Hillbilly Elegy" for some reason. Personally, I thought it was pretty accurate, so I'm not sure about the complaints.

Directing: This is a very tough category. Hollywood wants to give an award to Thomas Vinterberg, but it's not likely in this category. Sooner or later, David Fincher will get one of these trophies as one of the most seriously-taken directors in Hollywood, but I'm thinking it probably won't be this year. A lot of the buzz has been around Chloé Zhao for "Nomadland" and I think she'll probably win. But she adapted the work from existing material, so personally I think both Emerald Fennell ("Promising Young Woman") and Lee Isaac Chung ("Minari") had tougher tasks (ass all three wrote AND directed their films). All three movies are equally great, but I think the greatest leap in quality from screenplay to film was done with "Minari," so I'd personally give it to Chung.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay): This one is kinda wide open. "The White Tiger" won't win, but it might be the best script in the group. I'd be a little shocked if "Borat Subsequent Moviefilm" or "One Night in Miami" won. "The Father" could very well win, it's almost perfectly like the film, as in the filmmakers didn't need to change much because it was so well-written, but I think this one will go to "Nomadland." The screenplay evoked the same feelings in me as the movie did. After I saw the movie. That's good writing.

Writing (Original Screenplay): All of these screenplays are genius. I'm guessing the winner will be Sorkin for "The Trial of the Chicago 7" and it is a great screenplay. But I really thought "Promising Young Woman" was an important work and the script has layers built into that made me a better writer just for having read it.

Costume Design: Without question, I'm going with "Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom" as my favorite here. And I think it could win, but Hollywood loves Hollywood, so I'm guessing "Mank" will win. A surprise might give it to "Emma" as well.

Music (Original Score): It's sad that this is the only nomination for "Da 5 Bloods," as that was a great movie. It's likely that Trent Reznor will be getting an award here, though, with his partner Atticus Ross, since they're nominated twice. I think they will win for "Soul" (along with Jon Batiste) and I think they should.

Music (Original Song): Literally everyone thinks Leslie Odom Jr. is going to win for "One Night in Miami," (on his way to an EGOT) so I'm not going to go against that. These are actually all really good songs. It was really challenging for me not to pick H.E.R. and Tiara Thomas' "Fight for You" or Celeste's "Hear My Voice," but "Husavik" from Eurovision, featuring Will Ferrell, is actually the most haunting and inspiring of these songs, in a year that seems to be what all the songs were nominated for.

Documentary Feature: For me, the winner is definitely "Crip Camp." It's fun, funny, inspirational and still fully relevant right now. "Collective" has gotten a ton of push from the Internet, but the win is likely to go to "My Octopus Teacher," which is among my least favorite films nominated, so I hope not. "Time" could also sneak in here for a surprise win.

Documentary Short Subject: This is the hardest one for me to pick. My favorite was definitely "Colette," but it's getting no buzz. At first I was certain "A Concerto Is a Conversation" was going to win, but "Hunger Ward" and "A Love Song for Latasha" have really started getting some momentum. I'm guessing the academy goes with "Hunger Ward."

Animated Feature Film: "Soul" is basically a perfect movie from the second-most consistent major movie studio there is (after Marvel) and their other entry, "Onward" could win in a different year. I'd be shocked if "Soul" doesn't win, though. If it doesn't, the winner will be "Wolfwalkers." It's the most visually original of these movies, although it still is less original and stunning than "Opera" (see below).

Animated Short Film: "Burrow" is very cute and I thoroughly enjoyed it, but "If Anything Happens I Love You" is likely to win. If not, my favorite, "Opera" will. Opera is just visually stunning and conceptually amazing. I paid $12 to watch 9 minutes and I felt like I ripped them off.

Live Action Short Film: It's easy for me to pick my choice here, it's "Two Distant Strangers." That or "The Letter Room" or "The Present" could win. Hell, I wouldn't even count out "White Eye" here, all four movies are about edgy social issues and all tell poignant stories. I'm guessing the academy will go for "The Present."

International Feature Film: Everything everywhere says "Another Round" is going to win this one and it's hard to ignore that kind of unanimity. "Collective" has been getting a counter-push from the Internet, but I actually think "Quo Vadis, Aida?" is the one that will stick with me the longest.

Cinematography: This one seems pretty easy. "Nomadland" is visually stunning and really serves as a visual document of the American road and the West. "Mank" could sneak in here, if the voters are feeling a little funky.

Film Editing: This is probably the hardest category for me to judge. If the editing is done well, you tend to not notice it. Based off the blueprint they were given by Aaron Sorkin, I think "The Trial of the Chicago 7" probably deserves the award, but "Nomadland" is deserving and will probably win. "Sound of Metal" might be worthy, too, as the Sound Editing is very well integrated with the Film Editing.

Production Design: I'm guessing this is a lock for "Mank," as it's an easy way to give recognition to a worthy film. Personally, I prefer "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom," and I don't think you can fully count out "Tenet."

Makeup and Hairstyling: I think we can safely say that "Hillbilly Elegy" and "Pinocchio" are out. "Pinocchio" is the worst movie of all 56 that were nominated and "Hillbilly" has been widely ridiculed. The Oscars LOVE movies about movies, so "Mank" could win this one, and traditionally, movies like "Emma" win, but I think "Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom" is the best and I think it'll win.

Sound: If anything other than "Sound of Metal" wins this category, demand a recount. "Sound of Metal" is the best use of sound I've ever seen in a movie and all the buzz seems to say the same.

Visual Effects: Personally, I think "Tenet" was the best, effects-wise, even if the overall movie failed to live up to my expectations. It'll likely win, but if there is a surprise here, it could be "The One and Only Ivan." I don't think it's worthy of the win, but others seem to.

Overall, this is one of the best groups of Oscar nominees I've ever seen. There are only a few movies I don't like and some of that is politics more than filmmaking. There's a lot of diversity here in terms of voices and stories and this is definitely not looking to be an "Oscars So White" kinda year. We could see record numbers of winners for people of color and women, which is great.